Issued: 2011 03 10 1356 GMT #------------------------------------------------# # PROPAGATION WARNING # # C.C.R.M. Ophain # # 50° 39' 30\" N - 004° 29' 00\" E # # # # POSSIBLE HARMFULL INTERFERENCE DUE TO # # SPECIAL EVENT # #------------------------------------------------# CCRM Propagation Bulletin #61 OBSERVATION PERIOD : 2011 03 10 1356 GMT INTERFERENCE RISK : Important solar erruption : Summary of the \"Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium \" bulletin .... :Issued: 2011 Mar 10 0001 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/flaremail #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Large flare alerts from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), detected in GOES # # X-ray data # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A class X1.5 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2011/03/09 with peak time 23:23 UT :Issued: 2011 Mar 10 0646 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# An X1.5 flare occurred yesterday evening at 23h16 in NOAA AR 11166, which is on the center of the solar disk. No coronographic data from LASCO is available yet, but SDO/AIA images suggest a CME associated to this event. :Issued: 2011 Mar 10 0915 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A shock was observed in the solar wind speed as observed by the ACE spacecraft around 6h10 UT this morning. This indicated the arrival of the CME that left the Sun around 20h12 on March 7. As BZ is negative with a value of -10, active conditions are expected in the coming hours. :Issued: 2011 Mar 10 1308 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 10310 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Mar 2011, 1252UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Mar 2011 until 12 Mar 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 003 PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 001 COMMENT: As NOAA AR 11164 and 1165 are turning over the west limb, NOAA AR 11166 is taking over. This active region (Cat 22) produced two M1.7-flares yesterday (peaking at 11h07 and 14h02) as well as an X1.5 flare just before midnight (peaking at 23h16). The GOES X-ray background has gone down to the lower C-level, but more flaring activity can be expected from this region. A shock was observed in the solar wind speed by the ACE spacecraft around 6h10 UT this morning. This indicated the arrival of the CME that left the Sun around 20h12 on March 7. The magnetic field reached a minimum around -10 nT, which caused minor unsettled geomagnetic conditions (Kp reached level 4). As the Bz component of the geomagnetic field is turning positive now, we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions for the coming period. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 069, BASED ON 02 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 Mar 2011 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 117 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 143 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 004 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 076, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 09 1035 1107 1121 N08W03 M1.7 SF III/2 22 1166 09 1317 1402 1413 N09W06 M1.7 SF VI/1 22 1166 09 2313 2323 2329 N08W09 X1.5 2B V/1,III/1 22 1166 END BT REMARKS : Operator : Serge MAROTTE Snr. Radio-operator / technical staff SEE OUR PROGPAGATION GRAPHS : http://www.ccrmradio.be/propaplot.html AND PROPAGATION MAP : http://www.ccrmradio.be/propamap.html Contact us for specific information. #------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Centre de Contrôle des Radiocommunications des Services Mobiles # # Centrum voor Controle der Radioverbindingen van de Mobiele Diensten # # a.s.b.l. v.z.w. # # Rue des Belles Pierres, 5 # # B-1421 OPHAIN Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 384 26 59 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 384 40 94 # # ccrm@ccrmradio.be # # # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'propagation@ccrmradio.be'. # # To subscribe or unsubscribe, send a mail to 'propagation@ccrmradio.be' # # For more information, see http://www.ccrmradio.be # #------------------------------------------------------------------------#