Issued: 2014 01 08 0822 UTC #------------------------------------------------# # PROPAGATION WARNING # # C.C.R.M. Ophain # # 50° 39' 30\" N - 004° 29' 00\" E # # # # POSSIBLE HARMFULL INTERFERENCE DUE TO # # SPECIAL EVENT # #------------------------------------------------# CCRM Propagation Bulletin #316 OBSERVATION PERIOD : 2014 01 08 0822 UTC INTERFERENCE RISK : Abnormal Solar Activity : High velocity proton flux >100MeV and strong Radio Burst Warning from NOAA (USA) Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0 Serial Number: 71 Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2040 UTC WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected Valid From: 2014 Jan 07 2015 UTC Valid To: 2014 Jan 08 1300 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales ********************************************************************************* * Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate * increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. * Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. * This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact. ********************************************************************************* Warning from the Royal Observatory of Belgium A halo CME was associated with the X1.3 proton flare of January 7. SOHO/LASCO-C2 observed an asymmetric halo CME with first measurement at 18:24 UTC. The main direction of propagation is to the southwest. The event was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C3, STEREO A/COR2 and (partly in) STEREO B/COR2 imagery data. The event was combined with a type II radio burst, EUV wave and a large dimming region. The shock speed from radio spectrographs was estimated at 1064 km/s (Sagamore Hill). Based on time/height measurements of SOHO/LASCO data the initial CME speed is estimated at 2353 km/s. Estimates based on Stereoscopy provide an estimate of around 1900 km/s. Using the DBM propagation model with a different speed values at 20 solar radii of 1800 to 2300 km/s, the arrival time of this CME is estimated on January 9 between 2:00 and 7:00 UTC. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 7) conditions are expected. In the meantime, the proton event continues. The proton flux is still rising for the > 10MeV and >50MeV protons and is starting to decline for >100MeV protons. The current value for >10MeV protons is around 700 sfu. REMARKS : This alert is still valid for the moment. We are currently monitoring the impact on HF and VUHF Radio Spectrum. Operator : Serge MAROTTE Senior Radio Operator - Technical Staff SEE OUR PROGPAGATION GRAPHS : http://www.ccrmradio.be/propaplot.html AND PROPAGATION MAP : http://www.ccrmradio.be/propamap.html Contact us for specific information. #------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Centre de Contrôle des Radiocommunications des Services Mobiles # # Centrum voor Controle der Radioverbindingen van de Mobiele Diensten # # a.s.b.l. v.z.w. # # Rue des Belles Pierres, 5 # # B-1421 OPHAIN Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 384 26 59 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 384 40 94 # # ccrm@ccrmradio.be # # # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'propagation@ccrmradio.be'. # # To subscribe or unsubscribe, send a mail to 'propagation@ccrmradio.be' # # For more information, see http://www.ccrmradio.be # #------------------------------------------------------------------------#