Issued: 2012 03 07 0814 GMT #------------------------------------------------# # PROPAGATION WARNING # # C.C.R.M. Ophain # # 50° 39' 30\" N - 004° 29' 00\" E # # # # POSSIBLE HARMFULL INTERFERENCE DUE TO # # SPECIAL EVENT # #------------------------------------------------# CCRM Propagation Bulletin #150150 OBSERVATION PERIOD : 2012 03 07 0814 GMT INTERFERENCE RISK : Solar erruption. From the Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium Royal Observatory of Belgium. :Issued: 2012 Mar 07 0656 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# Two X-class flares in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) were detected by GOES today. The X5.4 flare peaking at 00:24 UT was located at N17E27. The X1.3 flare peaking at 01:14 UT (during the declining phase of the X5.4 flare) was located at N22E12. According to the SDO/AIA data, each flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave and a post-eruption arcade, indicating the eruption of two CMEs. At least one of the CMEs was detected by SECCHI/COR2 coronagraph onboard STEREO B. At the moment of writing the SECCHI data is too fragmented and no SOHO/LASCO data is available, so the CME speed cannot be determined reliably. Both flares were accompanied by type II radio bursts. The SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise shortly before 02:00 UT and crossed the SEP event threshold shortly before 06:00 UT. The contemporary rise of the proton flux at energies above 50 and 100 MeV indicates that the protons are mostly accelerated at the CME-driven shock associated with the (either of) the two X-ray flares today. A contribution from a possible shock that was detected by ACE at 03:35 UT (most probably associated with the halo CME on March 4) and from the halo CME on March 5 is not excluded. The SEP event spectrum looks rather hard. No SOHO/CELIAS data is available at the moment to confirm the shock detection by ACE. The solar wind speed is currently around 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is around 18 nT, with the north-south Bz component negative during extended intervals. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions up to the minor storm level are expected. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# REMARKS : Operator : Serge MAROTTE Snr. Radio-operator / technical staff SEE OUR PROGPAGATION GRAPHS : http://www.ccrmradio.be/propaplot.html AND PROPAGATION MAP : http://www.ccrmradio.be/propamap.html Contact us for specific information. #------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Centre de Contrôle des Radiocommunications des Services Mobiles # # Centrum voor Controle der Radioverbindingen van de Mobiele Diensten # # a.s.b.l. v.z.w. # # Rue des Belles Pierres, 5 # # B-1421 OPHAIN Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 384 26 59 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 384 40 94 # # ccrm@ccrmradio.be # # # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'propagation@ccrmradio.be'. # # To subscribe or unsubscribe, send a mail to 'propagation@ccrmradio.be' # # For more information, see http://www.ccrmradio.be # #------------------------------------------------------------------------#